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- Max Holloway is favourite at 20/41 to beat Conor McGregor in the UFC 329 main event, with McGregor priced as the 17/10 underdog
- Benoit Saint-Denis is a narrow 10/13 favourite over Paddy Pimblett at 11/10 in the co-main event
- Bet365 pricing McGregor as an underdog in his own comeback fight tells a real story about how the market reads a four-year layoff
McGregor's Long-Awaited Return Anchors the UFC 329 Card
Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return this weekend at UFC 329, taking on Max Holloway for the second time in his career.
Bet365, one of the leading betting sites for combat sports pricing, have him as the underdog in the bout, with Holloway seeking revenge 13 years on.
The two first met in August 2013 as featherweights, with the Irishman winning by decision, but this weekend's bout takes place at welterweight, a significant tactical variable in a fight where the physical dynamics between the two men have shifted meaningfully over more than a decade.
McGregor has not fought since July 2021, when he broke his leg in defeat to Dustin Poirier.
That four-year layoff is the single biggest factor bookmakers have priced into this fight, and it's the reason a returning star with the pulling power to sell out any arena on the planet enters as a legitimate underdog on the two-way market.
UFC 329 Main Event — McGregor vs Holloway Odds
| McGregor vs Holloway | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 20/41 | 67.21% |
| Conor McGregor | 17/10 | 37.04% |
There is a peculiar market gravity around any Conor McGregor fight. Public money almost always tilts heavily toward the Irishman regardless of matchup context.
Four years without a competitive fight is a significant absence in any combat sport, and it's particularly consequential at the highest level.
In the years since their first meeting, Holloway has established himself as one of the most durable and technically decorated strikers of his generation, with a proven ability to outwork elite opposition over five-round distances.
Bet365 pricing him as the favourite in this bout reflects just that, and it would genuinely be a surprise if McGregor beat him this weekend.
UFC 329 Co-Main Event — Pimblett vs Saint-Denis Odds
| Pimblett vs Saint-Denis | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Benoit Saint-Denis | 10/13 | 56.52% |
| Paddy Pimblett | 11/10 | 47.62% |
The co-main event brings together two of MMA's most watchable lightweights in a contest bookmakers have priced with barely a hair between them.
Paddy the Baddy has become one of the biggest draws in MMA, with a growing catalogue of stoppage wins and a fan following that ensures every one of his fights carries significant pay-per-view weight.
Saint-Denis has built a reputation as one of the most physically imposing pressure fighters in the division, with a grappling base that has caused problems for a broad range of stylistic opposition.
This bout on paper is arguably the fight of the night, and we're expecting a close one.
Where To Bet on UFC Markets
UFC fight nights are among the more heavily traded combat sports markets across the UK betting landscape.
Beyond the two-way match winner markets, bookmakers typically price up method of victory, round-by-round finishes, fight-goes-the-distance lines and props on knockdowns, submission attempts, and fight-of-the-night.
The best mma betting sites and specialist combat sports operators tend to lead the way on deeper pricing, and Bet365 in particular typically offers extensive prop coverage on marquee fight nights.
UFC 239 Full Card
Main card from 02:00 BST:
Conor McGregor v Max Holloway - welterweight
Benoit Saint-Denis v Paddy Pimblett - lightweight
Cory Sandhagen v Mario Bautista - bantamweight
Brandon Royval v Lone'er Kavanagh - flyweight
Bobby Green v Terrance McKinney - lightweight
Preliminary card from 00:00:
Robert Whittaker v Nikita Krylov - light-heavyweight
Gable Stevenson v Elisha Ellison - heavyweight
Cody Garbrandt v Adrian Yanez - bantamweight
Luke Riley v Kai Kamaka - featherweight
