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- Manchester City are 1/5 favourites at bet365 to keep Rodri, with Real Madrid at 10/3
- Fabrizio Romano reports Real Madrid president Florentino Perez is "not convinced by signing Rodri"
- The 1/5 reflects contract stalemate as much as a settled situation
City the Emphatic Favourites to Keep Rodri
bet365 have priced up the Rodri next club market as a strikingly one-sided, with betting sites putting it between two names: Manchester City at 1/5 to keep the Ballon d'Or winner, and Real Madrid at 10/3 to sign him.
Rodri himself has said his future will be decided after the World Cup, keeping the market open even as the pricing points overwhelmingly toward the incumbent.
City have reportedly offered Rodri a new contract, but there has been no breakthrough as of yet.
Fabrizio Romano's reporting has captured the current state of play more precisely than any single market position could, saying, "Between Rodri and Florentino at the moment, my understanding is that Florentino is not convinced by signing Rodri. Next summer, 2027, Rodri could leave Man City on a free".
1/5 Gives Strong Chance of Rodri Staying
1/5 on Manchester City to keep Rodri looks like a market position that reflects settled reporting and a straightforward outcome.
Rodri's existing deal runs until the end of next season and it may well be that he stays put until then.
The 23.08% implied on Real Madrid isn't the market's assessment of Rodri's interest in a move to Spain. It's the market's assessment of the probability that Florentino Perez actually pursues a deal.
Romano's report that Florentino "is not convinced by signing Rodri" has been priced in.
2027 Free Agent Route
If Rodri stays for the 2026/27 season without signing a new contract, his existing deal runs down toward a 2027 expiry, meaning he would be able to leave Manchester City on a free transfer next summer.
Real Madrid are well known for a free agent signings, as they then do not have to pay a massive transfer fee, but can spend the money on wages instead.
Madrid may not decide to sign Rodri next summer though, opening the market up for other clubs across Europe if a new contract is not agreed.
Where To Bet on Next Club Markets
Football transfer specials are one of the more heavily traded niches in the UK betting calendar, and bet365 are among a number of operators pricing next club specials on high-profile players.
The best football betting sites alongside the wider UK bookmaker landscape typically lead on deeper transfer coverage.
A scan of the free bets and welcome offers in circulation is standard housekeeping.
