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World Cup Winning Favourites
In this blog, we are going to look at just how well countries that go into World Cup matches as favourites really do.
Are some countries more reliable than others? Do some falter when it comes to the pressure of the knock-out stages?
These are just some of the factors that the best football tipsters look at when deciding on their picks.
For the information in this blog, we will be looking at the last five tournaments.
We have looked at:
- How often do Favourites win World Cup Matches?
- Which Countries are Reliable Favourites?
- Which Countries are not so Reliable Favourites?
- Does the Favourite's success improve in the Knock-Outs?
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How often do Favourites win World Cup Matches?
When looking back at past World Cup tournaments, one question that is often asked is how reliable the favourites are. As a whole, the last five tournaments have seen 55% of favourites win matches, but this does seem to vary from tournament to tournament.
There were 64 games at each tournament between 2010 & 2022; however, that increased to 104 for 2026 and moving forward. The 2026 tournament was a bumper year when 64 of the 104 matches were won by favourites, a massive 62%, and the lowest was in 2014 with just 50% of favourites winning.
With the additional teams in 2026, you no longer had the top 32 countries taking part; instead, you had 48, and maybe that is why the favourites' strike rate improved due to the quality of the teams.
- 2010: 52% (33-64)
- 2014: 50% (32-64)
- 2018: 56% (36-64)
- 2022: 53% (34-64)
- 2026: 62% (64-104)
- Overall: 55% (199-360)
Here is how the favourites have performed in terms of each round of the group matches
| Stage | 2010 | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Group Match | 44% (7-16) | 56% (9-16) | 56% (9-16) | 56% (9-16) | 54% (13-24) |
| 2nd Group Match | 56% (9-16) | 44% (7-16) | 69% (11-16) | 44% (7-16) | 75% (18-24) |
| 3rd Group Match | 50% (8-16) | 63% (10-16) | 50% (8-16) | 50% (8-16) | 63% (15-24) |
Which Countries are Reliable Favourites?
If you look at countries that have been made favourites in at least five matches over the last five tournaments, then none of them has a perfect record, but some of them are close and are respectable favourites, whilst others have struggled.
Colombia top the list, which may surprise a few; they have been the favourites in eleven matches, winning nine of those, which is an 82% success rate, with their only defeats coming in the group stages of the 2018 World Cup (Japan 2-1) and at the 2026 WC (Switzerland 0-0).
The Netherlands have a decent record with twelve wins from sixteen games when favourites, a 75% success rate, whilst Morocco (4-5 80%), Mexico (8-11 73%) and France (20-28 71%) all have success rates of 70% or more.
Top Five Favourites
- Colombia: 82% (9-11)
- Morocco: 80% (4-5)
- Netherlands: 75% (12-16)
- Mexico: 73% (8-11)
- France: 71% (20-28)
Which Countries are not so Reliable Favourites?
At the other end of the spectrum, a couple of names you probably wouldn't expect to be on the list are Denmark and Italy, with the latter going 0-5 at the last five tournaments, although they have not been at them all.
Worst Five Favourites
- Italy: 0% (0-5)
- Serbia: 17% (1-6)
- Japan: 20% (1-5)
- Denmark: 33% (2-6)
- South Korea: 33% (2-6)
Does the Favourite success improve in the Knock-Outs?
Over the last five tournaments, the success rate for favourites in the group stages is 56%, with 148 winning from 264 matches. You get a few uneven matchups during the group stages, but when it comes to the knock-outs, you only have the better teams competing, with more at stake. Could this affect the favourites?
Well, whilst the group stages were 56%, the success rate for favourites in the knock-out stages actually drops to just 53%, and we have to remember we are talking 90 minutes only here, with a lot of the games now going to extra time. The 2014 tournament was low, with just 38% (6-16) of favourites winning in 90 minutes, whilst the 2022 tournament was high, with 63% (10-16) of favourites winning.
France have a good record as favourites in the knock-out stages at the last five tournaments, having won eleven of their thirteen games (85%). When we speak about teams who excel under pressure, Germany is always one of the first you think of; however, they have only won two of the five games in ninety minutes.
Top Five Knock-Out Favourites
- France: 85% (11-13)
- Netherlands: 67% (4-6)
- Spain: 60% (6-10)
- England: 44% (4-9)
- Brazil: 42% (5-12)
Article Contributor Information
James Banting and Andy Powell created and maintain OLBG's comprehensive International Football coverage of the World Cup, bringing a wealth of knowledge and experience to their work.
James Banting
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Andy Powell
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